Macro

Prediction markets across politics, macroeconomics, tech, crypto, and sports saw varied movements today, with significant shifts on AI model development and future Federal Reserve actions capturing market attention.

## Macro Expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut cooled, with the market predicting "Will the Fed cut rates at the next FOMC meeting?" now at 64%, down 3.1 percentage points over the last 24 hours. This market saw substantial trading volume of $2,110,000. Looking further out, sentiment on economic growth saw a slight increase, with the market for "Will US Q3 2026 GDP growth exceed 2.5%?" rising 1.8 percentage points to 41%, on a volume of $780,000.

## Tech Anticipation for advanced AI continued to build. The probability of "Will GPT-6 be released in 2026?" surged by 5.8 percentage points to 27%, trading $1,640,000. Similarly, the market for "Will an AI model score 90%+ on the ARC-AGI benchmark in 2026?" increased by 4.5 percentage points to 33%, with $210,000 in volume. These movements indicate growing confidence in rapid AI development timelines.

## Crypto Optimism for Bitcoin's future price gained traction, as the market for "Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 before 2028?" edged up 2.4 percentage points to 38%. This market generated the highest trading volume across all listed predictions, at $4,820,000. Conversely, the prospect of Ethereum surpassing Bitcoin in market capitalization became less likely, with "Will Ethereum flip Bitcoin by market cap in 2026?" declining 1.2 percentage points to 8%, on a volume of $320,000.

## Politics The 2028 US Presidential election market saw minor movement. The probability of "Will the Democrats win the 2028 US presidential election?" increased by 0.9 percentage points to 47%. This market attracted significant investor interest, with $9,800,000 in trading volume.

## Sports Sports markets remained relatively stable. The probability of "Will the Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals?" saw a slight decrease of 0.6 percentage points, settling at 12%, with a traded volume of $540,000.

What to watch: Continued shifts in Federal Reserve rate cut probabilities will likely dominate macroeconomic discussion.