# Fed rate cut odds: what Polymarket and Kalshi price for the next FOMC

URL: https://tomorrowalpha.com/learn/fed-rate-cut-odds
Updated: 2026-10-12

Prediction markets price each FOMC decision as a set of contracts — cut, hold or hike — whose prices read as probabilities. After the Fed raised its target range by 25bp to 3.75%–4.00% on 16 September 2026, markets shifted from pricing cuts to pricing holds and possible further hikes. The next meetings are 27–28 October and 8–9 December 2026.

## At a glance

- **Fed funds target:** 3.75%–4.00% (since 16 Sep 2026)
- **Last move:** +25bp hike, 16 Sep 2026 — first increase since 2023
- **Next FOMC:** 27–28 Oct 2026, then 8–9 Dec 2026
- **Where to trade:** Kalshi, Polymarket US (US); Polymarket intl elsewhere where legal

## Live Fed rate odds

See the current price on our live market page: [Fed decision at the next FOMC](https://tomorrowalpha.com/markets/fed-cut-next-fomc). Prices update continuously from Polymarket and Kalshi.

## Fed decisions in 2026 so far

Earlier in 2026 prediction markets priced a meaningful chance of cuts, including at the June meeting; those cuts never came, and the September hike reset expectations.

| Meeting | Decision |
| --- | --- |
| January | Hold |
| March | Hold |
| April | Hold |
| June | Hold |
| July | Hold |
| September (16th) | Hike +25bp to 3.75%–4.00% |
| October 27–28 | Upcoming |
| December 8–9 | Upcoming |

## FOMC meeting calendar 2026–2027

- **2026:** 27–28 October · 8–9 December
- **2027:** 26–27 January · 16–17 March · 27–28 April · 8–9 June · 27–28 July · 14–15 September · 26–27 October · 7–8 December

## How to read a Fed rate market

Each meeting usually has several contracts: *cut 25bp*, *cut 50bp+*, *no change*, *hike 25bp*. If 'no change' trades at 70¢, the market sees a 70% chance of a hold. Prices across all outcomes should sum to about $1 (minus spread). Venues often also list contracts on the year-end rate level or the number of cuts in a year.

**Prediction markets vs CME FedWatch:** FedWatch derives probabilities from fed funds futures prices; Kalshi and Polymarket let you trade the outcome directly. The two usually agree within a few points; gaps can signal positioning or thin liquidity.

## Where can you trade Fed rate markets?

In the US, Fed contracts trade on Kalshi and Polymarket US, are not sports contracts, and are available in every state. Outside the US, Polymarket international lists Fed markets where it is accessible — not in the UK or most of the EU. See [Kalshi vs Polymarket](https://tomorrowalpha.com/compare/polymarket-vs-kalshi).

## Frequently asked questions

### What are the odds of a Fed rate cut?

Check the live price on TomorrowAlpha's Fed market page. After the September 2026 hike to 3.75%–4.00%, markets were pricing holds or further hikes rather than near-term cuts.

### When is the next FOMC meeting?

27–28 October 2026, followed by 8–9 December 2026.

### Did the Fed cut rates in June 2026?

No. The Fed held rates at its June 2026 meeting and raised them by 25bp in September.

### Is Polymarket accurate on Fed decisions?

Close to the meeting, Fed markets on Polymarket and Kalshi have typically tracked CME FedWatch closely, because both reflect the same information about Fed guidance and data.

## Sources

1. [Federal Reserve — FOMC calendars](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm)
2. [Federal Reserve — SEP projections, 16 Sep 2026](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260916.htm)
3. [Kalshi fee schedule](https://kalshi.com/docs/kalshi-fee-schedule.pdf)