# GPT-6 release date odds: what prediction markets say

URL: https://tomorrowalpha.com/learn/gpt-6-release-odds
Updated: 2026-10-12

OpenAI began rolling out GPT-6 Astra on 3 September 2026 to approved business users in its Daybreak program, with a version for paid ChatGPT users announced. Whether prediction markets resolve YES depends on their wording: Polymarket's 2026 market requires general public availability, so a closed or invitation-only rollout does not count.

## At a glance

- **First GPT-6 rollout:** GPT-6 Astra, 3 Sep 2026 (Daybreak business testers)
- **Key resolution test:** Publicly accessible (open beta or open waitlist counts; closed beta doesn't)
- **Markets:** Polymarket 'GPT-6 by Dec 31, 2026'; Kalshi monthly deadlines

## Has GPT-6 been released?

Partially. On 3 September 2026 OpenAI said it had rolled out **GPT-6 Astra** to business users in its Daybreak program and planned a version with extra cybersecurity guardrails for paid ChatGPT users. Before that, OpenAI's newest public family was GPT-5.6 (July 2026).

## How Polymarket and Kalshi decide if GPT-6 is 'released'

Polymarket's 'GPT-6 released by December 31, 2026' market resolves YES only if a model explicitly named GPT-6 (or a recognised GPT-5 successor) is **available to the general public**, including open beta or an open rolling waitlist. Closed betas and private access do not count, and 'GPT-5.5'-style names don't qualify. Kalshi's monthly contracts use their own rule text — always read it on the market page.

This is why GPT-6 odds can stay below 100% even after an announcement: traders are pricing whether the rollout meets the public-availability test before the deadline.

## Other AI launch odds to watch

Track them on our [live markets](https://tomorrowalpha.com/markets) page.

- Model release deadlines (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, xAI)
- 'Best AI model' rankings by month (often resolved by public leaderboards)
- AGI and benchmark markets

## Frequently asked questions

### When was GPT-6 released?

OpenAI began a limited GPT-6 Astra rollout to Daybreak business testers on 3 September 2026. Broader availability to paid ChatGPT users was announced; check the live market for whether public-release criteria have been met.

### Does a limited release count on Polymarket?

No. Polymarket's GPT-6 market requires general public availability; closed betas or private access don't count.

## Sources

1. [Bloomberg Law — OpenAI rolls out GPT-6 Astra (3 Sep 2026)](https://news.bgov.com/artificial-intelligence/openai-rolls-out-gpt-6-astra-model-with-cyber-guardrails-1)