Prediction Markets: Fed Cut Chances Ease, AI Futures Mixed

## Prediction Markets: Fed Cut Chances Ease, AI Futures Mixed

Prediction markets saw notable activity over the past 24 hours, with the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut at its next meeting decreasing, while futures on AI development presented a mixed picture. Bitcoin's long-term price potential gained ground, and the 2028 US Presidential election market continued to draw substantial volume.

## Macroeconomics

Expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut softened. The market on whether the Fed will cut rates at the next FOMC meeting currently stands at 64%, down 3.1 percentage points over the last 24 hours. This market saw a high trading volume of $2,110,000, indicating significant shifts in investor sentiment. Looking further ahead, the market for US Q3 2026 GDP growth exceeding 2.5% increased slightly to 41%, up 1.8 percentage points, with $780,000 in volume.

## Technology & AI

The future trajectory of artificial intelligence remained a focus for traders. The probability of GPT-6 being released in 2026 saw a notable increase, rising 5.8 percentage points to 27%. This market generated $1,640,000 in trading volume. Concurrently, the market for an AI model scoring 90%+ on the ARC-AGI benchmark in 2026 also moved upward, gaining 4.5 percentage points to reach 33%, albeit on a smaller volume of $210,000.

## Crypto

Cryptocurrency markets showed some distinct trends. The probability of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 before 2028 rose by 2.4 percentage points to 38%, making it the highest volume market in this category with $4,820,000 traded. Conversely, the market for Ethereum flipping Bitcoin by market cap in 2026 saw a decrease, dropping 1.2 percentage points to a current probability of 8%, with $320,000 in volume.

## Politics & Sports

Political markets continued to attract substantial interest. The probabilities for the Democrats to win the 2028 US presidential election edged up 0.9 percentage points to 47%. This market recorded the highest overall trading volume in the past 24 hours, at $9,800,000, suggesting consistent engagement from bettors. In sports, bets on the Lakers winning the 2027 NBA Finals slightly declined by 0.6 percentage points, now standing at 12%, with a trading volume of $540,000.

What to watch: Continued shifts in Federal Reserve rate cut expectations as new economic data emerges.