Prediction markets news
Prediction Markets: Fed Cut Chances Ease, AI Futures Mixed
Prediction Markets: Fed Cut Chances Ease, AI Futures Mixed Prediction markets saw notable activity over the past 24 hours, with the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut at its next meeting decreasing, while futures on AI development pr
- Guides
Polymarket vs Kalshi: Where Should Serious Traders Allocate?
Polymarket and Kalshi are the two largest prediction markets in the world — and they could not be more different. A side-by-side on regulation, liquidity, fees, and which platform actually wins for which trader.
- Economy
The Quiet Repricing of Fed Cut Odds
When the Fed signals a cut, the largest re-rating happens not in the bond market but on Kalshi. Here is how CFTC-regulated rate contracts absorb new information faster than dealer screens — and why macro desks now watch them at the open.
- Crypto
Why Crypto Traders Are Front-Running the BTC $200K Market
Polymarket's $200,000 bitcoin contracts are pricing a 38% probability for end-2028. The spot market is not. Here is what the basis is telling us about leverage, time-horizon discounting, and where event-contract markets lead spot.
- Guides
A Beginner's Guide to Prediction Markets
New to prediction markets? Start here. A working guide to how the prices map to probabilities, which platforms exist, how to actually place a trade — and the four mistakes every first-timer makes.
- AI
AI Benchmarks Are Becoming a Tradeable Asset Class
Polymarket's contracts on GPT-5 launch dates and Claude benchmark scores now clear six figures of volume each. Treating AI benchmarks as a tradable asset class is no longer absurd — and the buy-side is starting to position accordingly.
- Guides
Are Prediction Markets Legal in the US?
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange. Polymarket geo-blocks every US IP. The legal picture for prediction markets in the United States is sharper than the headlines suggest — here is the current state.