Prediction markets news & analysis
Independent reporting and analysis on Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold and the wider event-derivatives industry.
Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip to 64%; AI Model Race & BTC $200K Futures See Jumps
Prediction markets saw a mixed bag of movements over the past 24 hours, with critical shifts in monetary policy expectations, AI development timelines, and cryptocurrency price targets. The most significant move involved Polymarket’s ‘Will
Top Moves on Polymarket & Kalshi — 2026-07-19
{ "title": "Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip to 64%; AI Model Race Heats Up as BTC Targets $200K", "body": "Prediction markets saw a notable shift in sentiment over the last 24 hours, with the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the next FOM
Top Moves on Polymarket & Kalshi — 2026-07-18
{ "title": "Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip to 64%; Bitcoin Pushes Towards $200K as AI Bets Rise", "body": "Prediction markets saw a mixed bag of movements over the last 24 hours, with the Federal Reserve's next rate decision taking center stage as
Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip: Polymarket Reduces June Cut to 64%; BTC $200K Target Rises
Prediction markets saw a notable shift today, with the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the next FOMC meeting decreasing, while confidence in Bitcoin reaching the $200,000 milestone before 2028 gained traction. Large volumes con
Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip to 64%; AI Model, Bitcoin Soar on Prediction Markets
Prediction markets saw a busy 24 hours, with a significant pullback in expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut. Meanwhile, optimism surrounding advanced AI models and Bitcoin's long-term price potential gained traction, reflec
Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip to 64%; Bitcoin Approaches $200K as AI Market Heats Up
Prediction markets saw significant shifts in the last 24 hours, with traders paring back expectations for an immediate Fed rate cut while enthusiasm for Bitcoin nearing $200,000 continues to build. The market for AI milestones also showed r
Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip to 64%; Bitcoin Targets $200K as AI Market Surges
Prediction markets reflected a nuanced shift in investor sentiment over the last 24 hours, with declining confidence in an imminent Fed rate cut alongside a sustained bullish outlook for Bitcoin and a remarkable surge in AI-related expectat
Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip to 64%; Bitcoin Targets $200K as AI Market Heats Up
Prediction markets saw a mixed session, with the probability of a Fed rate cut at the next FOMC meeting continuing its decline, now standing at 64% after a 3.1 percentage point drop. Concurrently, bullish sentiment around Bitcoin has pushed
Top Moves on Polymarket & Kalshi — 2026-07-12
{ "title": "Fed Rate Cut Odds Sag to 64%; Bitcoin $200K Before 2028 Inches Up", "body": "Prediction markets saw significant shifts today, with the probability of a Fed rate cut at the next FOMC meeting decreasing, while optimistic forecasts
Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip to 64%; Bitcoin Pushes Towards $200K as AI Bets Rise
Prediction markets saw significant movement today, with traders reassessing the likelihood of a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut. Odds for a cut at the next FOMC meeting declined to 64%, reflecting growing caution despite high trading vol
Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip to 64%; Bitcoin Targets $200K on Polymarket
Prediction markets witnessed a significant shift in monetary policy expectations today as the probability of a Fed rate cut at the next FOMC meeting decreased. Meanwhile, investor optimism for Bitcoin continues to climb, with a notable upti
Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip to 64%; Bitcoin Targets $200K Amid Shifting Markets
Prediction markets saw significant movement over the past 24 hours, with declining sentiment for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut taking center stage. Simultaneously, optimistic bets on Bitcoin surged, pushing its potential to hit $200,
Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip to 64%; Bitcoin Targets $200K as AI Market Heats Up
Prediction markets saw significant movement today, with traders adjusting expectations across monetary policy, cryptocurrency, and artificial intelligence. The probability of a Fed rate cut at the next FOMC meeting declined, while a substan
Fed Rate-Cut Odds Fall to 64%; Bitcoin Eyes $200K as AI Market Surges
Prediction markets saw a mixed bag of results in the last 24 hours, with declining sentiment for a near-term Fed rate cut contrasting with increased optimism for Bitcoin's price trajectory and the future of AI. Trading volume across these k
Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip to 64%; AI Model Race Heats Up as BTC Targets $200K
Prediction markets saw a notable shift today, with the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut at its next meeting declining to 64%. Simultaneously, the race for advanced AI models intensified, and cryptocurrency markets showed a bullish
Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip to 64%; AI Model Dominance, BTC $200K Futures See Increased Bets
Prediction markets saw a notable shift in sentiment over the last 24 hours, with the probability of a Fed rate cut at the next FOMC meeting decreasing, while optimistic bets on Bitcoin reaching $200,000 and advanced AI models gaining tracti
Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip to 64%; Bitcoin Targets $200K Amid Shifting AI and Macro Outlook
Prediction markets saw a notable dip in the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the next FOMC meeting, dropping 3.1 percentage points to 64%. This shift occurred amidst significant trading volume, indicating a reassessment of macroe
Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip to 64%; AI Model, Bitcoin Reachability Rise on Polymarket
Prediction markets saw a mixed bag of movements over the past 24 hours, with critical shifts in monetary policy expectations, significant upward revisions in AI development, and a notable bump in Bitcoin's long-term price targets. Traders a
Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip to 64%; Bitcoin Pushes for $200K as AI Hopes Rise
Prediction markets saw significant movement in the last 24 hours, with expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut declining while optimism for Bitcoin's long-term price trajectory and AI breakthroughs gained traction. Trading vol
Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip to 64%; Bitcoin Targets $200K Amidst AI Market Surge
Prediction markets witnessed a dynamic 24 hours, with critical shifts in monetary policy expectations, cryptocurrency trajectories, and the burgeoning AI race. The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the next FOMC meeting decreased,
Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip to 64%; Bitcoin Targets $200K as AI Market Heats Up
Prediction markets saw a mixed bag of movements over the past 24 hours, with the Federal Reserve's next rate decision taking center stage as probabilities for a cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting dipped. Meanwhile, the march towards a $200,00
Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip to 64%; Bitcoin Targets $200K as AI Pace Heats Up
Prediction markets saw significant shifts today, with the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the next FOMC meeting dropping to 64%, a 3.1 percentage point decrease over the last 24 hours. This move, driven by a substantial $2,110,
Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip to 64%; Bitcoin Targets $200K as AI Market Heats Up
Prediction markets saw significant movement today, with traders adjusting their outlook on everything from Federal Reserve policy to the future of artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency. The most notable shift was a decline in expectati
Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip: Prediction Markets Cool on June Action Amid Strong GDP Bets
Prediction markets showed a noticeable cooldown in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut at its next FOMC meeting, dropping 3.1 percentage points to 64% in the last 24 hours. This shift comes as bets on robust economic growth for US Q
Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip to 64%; Bitcoin Targets $200K as AI Market Soars
Prediction markets saw significant shifts today, with the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the next FOMC meeting declining to 64%, a 3.1 percentage point drop. This movement suggests a toughening stance on monetary policy expect
Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip to 64%; Bitcoin Pushes to 38% for Targeting $200K
Prediction markets saw a notable shift in sentiment over the last 24 hours, with the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut at the next FOMC meeting experiencing a significant decline. Simultaneously, the forecast for Bitcoin re
Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip: AI & Bitcoin Predictions See Significant Swings
Prediction markets have been dynamic over the past 24 hours, with declining confidence in a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut, while AI and cryptocurrency long-shots gained ground. The most significant shift came from the Fed rate cut mark
Fed Rate-Cut Odds Fall, Bitcoin Eyes $200K, AI Pace Quickens
Prediction markets saw significant shifts today, with traders dialing back expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut as confidence in Bitcoin's ascent above $200,000 grew. Bets on AI advancements also intensified, with substanti
Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip to 64%; AI Model, Bitcoin 200K Predictions Rise
Prediction markets saw a busy 24 hours, with critical shifts in monetary policy expectations. Traders trimmed the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the next FOMC meeting, while optimism for Bitcoin's price trajectory and AI's capa
Fed Rate-Cut Odds Fall to 64%; Bitcoin Pushes Towards $200K as AI Market Heats Up
Prediction markets saw a mixed bag of movements over the last 24 hours, with declining probabilities for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut contrasting with a slight uptick in Bitcoin's long-term price targets. Major shifts were also obse
Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip to 64%; Bitcoin Targets $200K as AI Market Soars
Prediction markets witnessed a dynamic 24 hours, with Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations cooling and significant momentum observed in AI and cryptocurrency markets. Notably, the probability of a rate cut at the next FOMC meeting declined
Fed Rate-Cut Odds Decrease to 64%; Bitcoin Targets $200K
Prediction markets have adjusted significantly in the past 24 hours, with the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the next FOMC meeting decreasing, while confidence in Bitcoin reaching $200,000 before 2028 has seen an uptick. Tradi
Top Moves on Polymarket & Kalshi — 2026-06-17
{ "title": "Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip to 64% as Bitcoin Targets $200K, AI Projects GPT-6 in 2026", "body": "Prediction markets saw a notable shift in expectations for monetary policy, with the odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the next FOM
Polymarket & Kalshi Top Moves — 2026-06-16
Prediction Markets See Rate Cut Odds Dip, AI Futures Climb Prediction markets over the last 24 hours indicated a slight reduction in the likelihood of an imminent Fed rate cut, alongside notable upward movement in certain AI development pro
TomorrowAlpha Market Wrap: Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip, Bitcoin Targets $200k
TomorrowAlpha Market Wrap: Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip, Bitcoin Targets $200k Prediction markets saw notable shifts this past 24 hours, with the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut at the next FOMC meeting dipping, while bets on B
Polymarket & Kalshi Top Moves — 2026-06-14
Prediction markets saw notable shifts over the past 24 hours, with declining probabilities for Federal Reserve rate cuts alongside growing optimism for Bitcoin's long-term trajectory and continued interest in AI development timelines. Macro
TomorrowAlpha Market Wrap: Rate Cut Odds Dip Amid Tech Surge
TomorrowAlpha Market Wrap: Rate Cut Odds Dip Amid Tech Surge Prediction markets saw notable shifts over the past 24 hours, with declining probabilities for an imminent Fed rate cut while long-term AI and crypto prospects gained ground. Sign
Polymarket & Kalshi Top Moves — 2026-06-12
TomorrowAlpha Market Wrap: AI Outlook Rises, Fed Cut Hopes Dim Slightly Prediction markets over the past 24 hours indicated a notable uptick in sentiment for AI advancements, while expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut softe
TomorrowAlpha Market Wrap: Rate Cut Odds Dip, AI Surges on Day's Biggest Moves
TomorrowAlpha Market Wrap: Rate Cut Odds Dip, AI Surges on Day's Biggest Moves Prediction markets saw notable shifts this past 24 hours, with declining probabilities for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut, while Artificial Intelligence-re
TomorrowAlpha Market Wrap: Rate Cut Odds Dip, AI Futures Surge
TomorrowAlpha Market Wrap: Rate Cut Odds Dip, AI Futures Surge Prediction markets saw notable activity in the last 24 hours, with declining probabilities for an imminent Fed rate cut and increased speculation in artificial intelligence deve
Polymarket & Kalshi Top Moves — 2026-06-09
Prediction markets across politics, macroeconomics, tech, crypto, and sports saw varied movements today, with significant shifts on AI model development and future Federal Reserve actions capturing market attention. Macro Expectations for a
Polymarket & Kalshi Top Moves — 2026-06-08
Prediction Markets React to Fed Sentiment and AI Speculation Prediction markets saw notable shifts this past 24 hours, with declining confidence in a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut contrasting with increased speculation around advanced
Polymarket & Kalshi Top Moves — 2026-06-07
Prediction markets saw mixed signals across technology and macroeconomic forecasts, with significant trading volume in potential rate cuts and the 2028 US presidential election. Macroeconomics Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut at
Prediction Markets: Rate Cut Odds Slip, AI Bets Edge Up
Prediction Markets: Rate Cut Odds Slip, AI Bets Edge Up Prediction markets saw notable shifts this past 24 hours, with the probability of a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut declining, while sentiment on certain AI milestones and Bitcoin's
Prediction Markets: Fed Cut Chances Ease, AI Futures Mixed
Prediction Markets: Fed Cut Chances Ease, AI Futures Mixed Prediction markets saw notable activity over the past 24 hours, with the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut at its next meeting decreasing, while futures on AI development pr
Polymarket vs Kalshi: Where Should Serious Traders Allocate?
Polymarket and Kalshi are the two largest prediction markets in the world — and they could not be more different. A side-by-side on regulation, liquidity, fees, and which platform actually wins for which trader.
The Quiet Repricing of Fed Cut Odds
When the Fed signals a cut, the largest re-rating happens not in the bond market but on Kalshi. Here is how CFTC-regulated rate contracts absorb new information faster than dealer screens — and why macro desks now watch them at the open.
Why Crypto Traders Are Front-Running the BTC $200K Market
Polymarket's $200,000 bitcoin contracts are pricing a 38% probability for end-2028. The spot market is not. Here is what the basis is telling us about leverage, time-horizon discounting, and where event-contract markets lead spot.
A Beginner's Guide to Prediction Markets
New to prediction markets? Start here. A working guide to how the prices map to probabilities, which platforms exist, how to actually place a trade — and the four mistakes every first-timer makes.
AI Benchmarks Are Becoming a Tradeable Asset Class
Polymarket's contracts on GPT-5 launch dates and Claude benchmark scores now clear six figures of volume each. Treating AI benchmarks as a tradable asset class is no longer absurd — and the buy-side is starting to position accordingly.