Learn prediction markets
Plain-language explainers — what prediction markets are, how they work, and how the major platforms differ.
What is a prediction market? A beginner's guide
A prediction (or predictive) market lets you trade contracts on future events; the price is the crowd's probability. How they work, examples, accuracy, risks and legality.
Manifold Markets: how the play-money prediction market works (2026)
Manifold Markets is a free play-money prediction market using Mana. How it works, fee structure, leaderboards, accuracy, and why it's available almost everywhere.
Fed rate cut odds: what Polymarket and Kalshi price for the next FOMC
Live Fed rate odds from Polymarket and Kalshi, the 2026–27 FOMC calendar, the September 2026 hike, and how to read rate-cut markets vs CME FedWatch.
GPT-6 release date odds: what prediction markets say
Has GPT-6 been released? OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra rollout, how Polymarket and Kalshi define a 'public release', and live AI launch odds — updated October 2026.
Prediction market licensing: which licence do you need? (2026)
How prediction markets are licensed in 2026: CFTC DCM in the US, UKGC betting-intermediary licence, Gibraltar, Malta (MGA) and why no EU licence exists yet.
Prediction market glossary
Plain-English definitions of prediction-market terms: event contract, AMM, futarchy, resolution, oracle, maker/taker, DCM, Mana, PredictIt, Zeitgeist and more.
What is Polymarket? (2026 guide)
Polymarket is the largest crypto-native prediction market in the world. Founded in 2020, it trades on Polygon in USDC stablecoin.
What is Kalshi? (2026 guide)
Kalshi is the first CFTC-regulated US prediction market. Founded in 2018, it offers federally regulated event contracts to US residents.