Prediction Markets: Rate Cut Odds Slip, AI Bets Edge Up

## Prediction Markets: Rate Cut Odds Slip, AI Bets Edge Up

Prediction markets saw notable shifts this past 24 hours, with the probability of a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut declining, while sentiment on certain AI milestones and Bitcoin's long-term prospects gained ground. The most active market by far was the 2028 US presidential election.

## Macroeconomics

The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the next FOMC meeting saw a decrease, now standing at 64%, a 3.1 percentage point (pp) drop over the last 24 hours. This market garnered significant volume at $2,110,000. Looking further ahead, the market for US Q3 2026 GDP growth exceeding 2.5% increased slightly to 41%, up 1.8pp on a volume of $780,000.

## Technology & AI

Optimism for future AI advancements saw an uptick. The market asking if GPT-6 will be released in 2026 is now at 27%, rising 5.8pp, with a substantial volume of $1,640,000. Similarly, the probability of an AI model scoring 90%+ on the ARC-AGI benchmark in 2026 increased to 33%, a gain of 4.5pp, on $210,000 in volume.

## Crypto

The long-term outlook for Bitcoin gained some traction, with the market predicting Bitcoin reaching $200,000 before 2028 now at 38%, up 2.4pp. This market saw the highest volume among crypto-related contracts at $4,820,000. Conversely, the probability of Ethereum flipping Bitcoin by market cap in 2026 continued its downward trend, now at 8%, a decrease of 1.2pp, with $320,000 in volume.

## Politics

The 2028 US presidential election remains a highly active market. The probability of the Democrats winning the 2028 US presidential election edged up to 47%, a modest gain of 0.9pp. This market registered the highest trading volume across all tracked contracts, reaching $9,800,000.

## Sports

In sports, the probability of the Lakers winning the 2027 NBA Finals decreased slightly to 12%, down 0.6pp, on a trading volume of $540,000.

What to watch: Future Federal Reserve rate hike odds following upcoming inflation data.