Macroeconomics

Prediction markets saw mixed signals across technology and macroeconomic forecasts, with significant trading volume in potential rate cuts and the 2028 US presidential election.

## Macroeconomics Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut at the next FOMC meeting continued to retract, with the probability falling 3.1 percentage points to 64%. This market saw robust activity, accumulating $2,110,000 in volume over the past 24 hours. Looking further ahead, the prospect of US Q3 2026 GDP growth exceeding 2.5% gained slight traction, up 1.8 percentage points to 41%, on a volume of $780,000.

## Technology & AI The timeline for advanced AI models dominated tech-related prediction markets. The probability of GPT-6 being released in 2026 saw a notable increase of 5.8 percentage points, reaching 27%. This market generated substantial interest, with $1,640,000 in trading volume. Similarly, the likelihood of an AI model scoring 90%+ on the ARC-AGI benchmark in 2026 climbed 4.5 percentage points to 33%, albeit with a lower volume of $210,000.

## Cryptocurrency Long-term cryptocurrency forecasts showed activity. The probability of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 before 2028 increased by 2.4 percentage points, settling at 38%. This market attracted the highest trading volume in the past 24 hours, at $4,820,000. Conversely, the market predicting Ethereum to flip Bitcoin by market cap in 2026 dipped 1.2 percentage points to 8%, with $320,000 in volume.

## Politics & Sports In politics, the probability of the Democrats winning the 2028 US presidential election registered a marginal increase of 0.9 percentage points, now standing at 47%. This market demonstrated significant engagement, with a 24-hour volume of $9,800,000. Sports predictions saw limited movement, with the Lakers winning the 2027 NBA Finals decreasing by 0.6 percentage points to 12%, on a volume of $540,000.

What to watch: The ongoing shifts in Fed rate cut expectations and their potential broader market ripple effects.