TomorrowAlpha Market Wrap: Rate Cut Odds Dip, AI Surges on Day's Biggest Moves

## TomorrowAlpha Market Wrap: Rate Cut Odds Dip, AI Surges on Day's Biggest Moves

Prediction markets saw notable shifts this past 24 hours, with declining probabilities for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut, while Artificial Intelligence-related forecasts experienced upward momentum. Trading volumes remained robust across key political and financial events.

## Macroeconomics

Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut at the next FOMC meeting decreased, with the probability standing at 64%, down 3.1 percentage points. This market demonstrated significant activity, trading $2,110,000. Looking further ahead, the prospect of US Q3 2026 GDP growth exceeding 2.5% saw a modest increase of 1.8 percentage points, now at 41%, with $780,000 in volume traded.

## Cryptocurrencies

The market for Bitcoin reaching $200,000 before 2028 gained traction, with its probability rising by 2.4 percentage points to 38%. This market led all cryptocurrency segments in volume, trading $4,820,000. Conversely, the likelihood of Ethereum flipping Bitcoin by market capitalization in 2026 saw a decline of 1.2 percentage points, settling at 8%, with $320,000 in volume.

## Technology & AI

Predictions concerning Artificial Intelligence development showed upward movement. The probability of GPT-6 being released in 2026 increased by 5.8 percentage points to 27%, representing one of the largest shifts of the day and trading $1,640,000. Similarly, the market for an AI model scoring 90%+ on the ARC-AGI benchmark in 2026 climbed 4.5 percentage points to 33%, with $210,000 in volume.

## Politics

In a high-volume market, the probability of the Democrats winning the 2028 US presidential election saw a slight uptick of 0.9 percentage points, now at 47%. This market generated substantial interest, trading $9,800,000.

## Sports

The likelihood of the Lakers winning the 2027 NBA Finals experienced a minor dip of 0.6 percentage points, with its probability now at 12%. This market traded $540,000.

What to watch: Continued oscillation in Fed rate cut expectations.