Technology & Innovation

**TomorrowAlpha Market Wrap: AI Outlook Rises, Fed Cut Hopes Dim Slightly**

Prediction markets over the past 24 hours indicated a notable uptick in sentiment for AI advancements, while expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut softened. Tech-centric contracts saw significant movement, alongside shifts in the macro and crypto landscapes.

## Technology & Innovation

Markets are increasingly bullish on future AI developments. The contract "Will GPT-6 be released in 2026?" climbed 5.8 percentage points (pp) to 27%, reflecting growing confidence in rapid large language model evolution. This market recorded a substantial volume of $1,640,000. Similarly, the prospect of AI achieving advanced reasoning capabilities gained ground, with "Will an AI model score 90%+ on the ARC-AGI benchmark in 2026?" rising 4.5 pp to 33%, on a volume of $210,000. This suggests traders are pricing in accelerated progress in AI research and deployment.

## Macroeconomics

Hopes for immediate monetary easing from the Federal Reserve waned slightly. The market "Will the Fed cut rates at the next FOMC meeting?" decreased by 3.1 pp to 64%. This contract saw the highest trading volume among the top movers, at $2,110,000, indicating considerable interest and possibly revised expectations following recent economic data or policymaker statements. Looking further ahead, optimism for a strong US economy in the mid-term saw a marginal increase, with "Will US Q3 2026 GDP growth exceed 2.5%?" rising 1.8 pp to 41%, trading $780,000.

## Cryptocurrency

Prediction markets showed mixed signals for the crypto sector. The long-term outlook for Bitcoin improved, with "Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 before 2028?" rising 2.4 pp to 38%. This market generated the highest overall trading volume at $4,820,000, suggesting significant speculative interest. Conversely, the probability of Ethereum surpassing Bitcoin in market capitalization within the next two years decreased, with "Will Ethereum flip Bitcoin by market cap in 2026?" falling 1.2 pp to a low 8% on a volume of $320,000.

## Politics & Sports

Meanwhile, political sentiment for the 2028 US Presidential election saw a slight uptick for the Democratic party, with "Will the Democrats win the 2028 US presidential election?" increasing by 0.9 pp to 47%. This market attracted the largest aggregate trading volume, at $9,800,000. In sports, betting on the Lakers' future success softened, as "Will the Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals?" dropped 0.6 pp to 12%, trading $540,000.

What to watch: The continued divergence in sentiment between AI advancement and near-term monetary policy.