Macro Economy
Prediction markets saw notable shifts over the past 24 hours, with declining probabilities for Federal Reserve rate cuts alongside growing optimism for Bitcoin's long-term trajectory and continued interest in AI development timelines. Macro
Prediction markets saw notable shifts over the past 24 hours, with declining probabilities for Federal Reserve rate cuts alongside growing optimism for Bitcoin's long-term trajectory and continued interest in AI development timelines.
## Macro Economy
Expectations for monetary policy registered a downturn, as the market assessing "Will the Fed cut rates at the next FOMC meeting?" fell 3.1 percentage points to 64%. This move occurred on substantial volume, totaling $2,110,000. Meanwhile, the market regarding "Will US Q3 2026 GDP growth exceed 2.5%?" saw a modest increase of 1.8 percentage points, now standing at 41% with $780,000 in trading volume.
## Technology & AI
Activity in the AI sector continued to draw attention. The probability for "Will GPT-6 be released in 2026?" climbed 5.8 percentage points to 27%, reflecting increasing trader confidence in a near-term release. This market recorded a volume of $1,640,000. Similarly, the market predictining "Will an AI model score 90%+ on the ARC-AGI benchmark in 2026?" rose 4.5 percentage points to 33%, with $210,000 in volume.
## Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin's long-term prospects gained traction, with the market "Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 before 2028?" increasing by 2.4 percentage points to 38%. This market generated the highest trading volume among all tracked markets at $4,820,000. In contrast, the market question "Will Ethereum flip Bitcoin by market cap in 2026?" saw its probability decline by 1.2 percentage points to 8%, with $320,000 in volume.
## Politics
The political landscape saw a slight uptick in Democratic prospects for the next presidential cycle. The market "Will the Democrats win the 2028 US presidential election?" rose by 0.9 percentage points to 47%, registering the highest overall volume for the day at $9,800,000.
## Sports
In sports, expectations for the Los Angeles Lakers declined. The market asking "Will the Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals?" dropped 0.6 percentage points to 12%, with $540,000 in trading volume.
What to watch: Continued shifts in Federal Reserve rate cut probabilities amid incoming economic data.