TomorrowAlpha Market Wrap: Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip, Bitcoin Targets $200k

## TomorrowAlpha Market Wrap: Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip, Bitcoin Targets $200k

Prediction markets saw notable shifts this past 24 hours, with the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut at the next FOMC meeting dipping, while bets on Bitcoin reaching $200,000 before 2028 gained momentum. AI-related markets also moved, suggesting increased skepticism about rapid advancements in 2026.

## Macro Economy Expectations for monetary policy experienced a downward revision, with the market predicting a 64% chance that the Fed will cut rates at the next FOMC meeting, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points. This market saw substantial trading volume of $2,110,000. Looking further ahead, the prospect of robust economic growth for the US in Q3 2026 gained slight traction; the market for US Q3 2026 GDP growth exceeding 2.5% is now at 41%, up 1.8 percentage points, on a volume of $780,000.

## Cryptocurrency The cryptocurrency sector witnessed significant activity, particularly around Bitcoin. The probability of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 before 2028 rose by 2.4 percentage points to 38%, making it one of the most actively traded markets with a volume of $4,820,000. In contrast, the likelihood of Ethereum flipping Bitcoin by market cap in 2026 declined by 1.2 percentage points, settling at 8% on a volume of $320,000.

## Technology & AI Markets tracking the rapid pace of artificial intelligence development saw some retrenchment. The probability of GPT-6 being released in 2026 decreased by a notable 5.8 percentage points to 27%. This market generated a considerable volume of $1,640,000. Similarly, the market for an AI model scoring 90%+ on the ARC-AGI benchmark in 2026 also fell by 4.5 percentage points, now standing at 33%, with a trading volume of $210,000.

## Politics & Sports In US politics, the odds for Democrats winning the 2028 US presidential election saw a marginal increase of 0.9 percentage points, now at 47%. This market recorded the highest trading volume at $9,800,000. In sports, the probability of the Lakers winning the 2027 NBA Finals dipped slightly by 0.6 percentage points to 12%, with a volume of $540,000.

What to watch: Continued shifts in Federal Reserve policy expectations.