Macroeconomics

**Prediction Markets See Rate Cut Odds Dip, AI Futures Climb**

Prediction markets over the last 24 hours indicated a slight reduction in the likelihood of an imminent Fed rate cut, alongside notable upward movement in certain AI development projections. Activity was particularly strong in political and cryptocurrency markets, reflecting ongoing investor interest in major long-term trends.

## Macroeconomics

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates at its next FOMC meeting decreased, with the market now positioning at 64%, down 3.1 percentage points. This market saw substantial trading volume, totaling $2,110,000. Looking further out, the likelihood of US Q3 2026 GDP growth exceeding 2.5% edged up 1.8 percentage points to 41%, on a volume of $780,000, suggesting a minor increase in optimism for medium-term economic expansion.

## Artificial Intelligence & Tech

The artificial intelligence sector experienced significant upward revisions in probabilities. The prospect of GPT-6 being released in 2026 jumped 5.8 percentage points to 27%, reflecting growing confidence in rapid generative AI advancements. This market garnered $1,640,000 in volume. Similarly, the likelihood of an AI model scoring 90%+ on the ARC-AGI benchmark in 2026 increased by 4.5 percentage points to 33%, with $210,000 traded. These movements suggest that market participants are increasing their expectations for key AI milestones within the next two years.

## Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin's long-term potential continues to attract significant betting volume, with the probability of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 before 2028 rising 2.4 percentage points to 38%. This market led all others in trading volume, reaching $4,820,000. Conversely, the market for Ethereum flipping Bitcoin by market cap in 2026 saw its probability decline by 1.2 percentage points to 8%, with $320,000 in volume, indicating a slight waning of bullish sentiment for Ethereum relative to Bitcoin in that timeframe.

## Politics & Sports

Political markets saw sustained interest, particularly regarding the 2028 US Presidential Election. The probability of the Democrats winning that election increased slightly by 0.9 percentage points to 47%. This market generated the highest overall trading volume at $9,800,000. In sports, the probability of the Lakers winning the 2027 NBA Finals dipped marginally by 0.6 percentage points to 12%, with a volume of $540,000.

What to watch: Continued Fed commentary and incoming economic data will be key for interest rate expectations.