Fed Rate-Cut Odds Fall to 64%; Bitcoin Eyes $200K as AI Market Surges

Prediction markets saw a mixed bag of results in the last 24 hours, with declining sentiment for a near-term Fed rate cut contrasting with increased optimism for Bitcoin's price trajectory and the future of AI. Trading volume across these k

## Macro & Monetary Policy

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates at its next FOMC meeting has dipped to 64%, marking a 3.1 percentage point decrease over the past 24 hours. This decline suggests softening expectations among market participants for imminent monetary easing, despite continued economic data releases. This market saw significant activity, recording a volume of $2,110,000. Concurrently, the market tracking whether US Q3 2026 GDP growth will exceed 2.5% saw its probability tick up by 1.8 percentage points to 41%, with a trading volume of $780,000, perhaps reflecting a nuanced view on long-term economic strength.

## Cryptocurrency

Optimism for Bitcoin (BTC) saw a notable rise, with the likelihood of BTC reaching $200,000 before 2028 gaining 2.4 percentage points to 38%. This market was particularly active, registering the highest trading volume at $4,820,000, underscoring strong speculative interest in the digital asset's future. In contrast, the market for Ethereum (ETH) flipping Bitcoin by market cap in 2026 saw a slight decline, dropping 1.2 percentage points to a mere 8%, with a volume of $320,000.

## Artificial Intelligence

Prediction markets showed increasing confidence in the rapid advancement of AI. The probability of GPT-6 being released in 2026 jumped by 5.8 percentage points to 27%, representing the largest positive swing among all tracked markets and a substantial volume of $1,640,000. Similarly, the market for an AI model scoring 90%+ on the ARC-AGI benchmark in 2026 rose by 4.5 percentage points to 33%, with $210,000 in volume. These movements signal a growing belief in accelerated AI development timelines among market participants.

## Politics & Sports

In the political arena, the likelihood of the Democrats winning the 2028 US presidential election saw a minor increase of 0.9 percentage points, now standing at 47%. This market was the most traded, with a colossal volume of $9,800,000, reflecting intense interest in future election outcomes. On the sports front, the Lakers' chances of winning the 2027 NBA Finals slightly receded, down 0.6 percentage points to 12%, with a trading volume of $540,000.

**What to watch:** The interplay between evolving Fed expectations and the resilient outlook on Bitcoin and AI advancements will be key in the coming days.