Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip as AI and Bitcoin Futures Surge on Prediction Markets

Prediction markets saw a busy 24 hours, with traders reassessing the likelihood of a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut while pushing up probabilities for ambitious AI milestones and a significant Bitcoin price target. Overall trading volum

## Macroeconomic Outlook

The probability of the Fed cutting rates at its next FOMC meeting decreased to 64%, marking a 3.1 percentage point (pp) drop over the last 24 hours. This move, representing the highest volume macro market at $2,110,000, suggests a growing belief that the central bank might maintain its current stance longer than previously anticipated. Concurrently, optimism for future economic performance saw a modest rise, with the market predicting US Q3 2026 GDP growth to exceed 2.5% now at 41%, up 1.8pp.

## Cryptocurrency Futures

Bitcoin's potential for substantial gains continued to capture market attention. The probability of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 before 2028 climbed to 38%, a 2.4pp increase. This market alone commanded a significant $4,820,000 in volume, making it the most active cryptocurrency prediction. In contrast, the odds of Ethereum flipping Bitcoin by market cap in 2026 saw a decline, dropping 1.2pp to 8%, indicating waning confidence in this long-term speculative outcome.

## Artificial Intelligence Development

Predictions around cutting-edge AI breakthroughs experienced notable upticks. The probability of GPT-6 being released in 2026 surged by 5.8pp to 27%, making it the largest single positive swing among tracked markets with $1,640,000 in volume. Similarly, the likelihood of an AI model scoring 90%+ on the ARC-AGI benchmark in 2026 increased by 4.5pp to 33%, reflecting heightened expectations for rapid advancements in AI capabilities.

## Political and Sports Speculation

In politics, the market for Democrats winning the 2028 US presidential election saw minimal movement, settling at 47% with a slight 0.9pp increase, despite robust trading volume of $9,800,000. Sports predictions remained relatively stable, with the odds of the Lakers winning the 2027 NBA Finals slipping by 0.6pp to 12% on $540,000 in volume.

**What to watch:** Continued Fed rhetoric for further clues on rate policy and sustained momentum in AI development markets.