Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip to 64%; AI Model, Bitcoin 200K Predictions Rise

Prediction markets saw a busy 24 hours, with critical shifts in monetary policy expectations. Traders trimmed the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the next FOMC meeting, while optimism for Bitcoin's price trajectory and AI's capabilities in 2026 gained ground.

## Macro & Monetary Policy

The most significant movement came in the highly watched "Will the Fed cut rates at the next FOMC meeting?" market, which saw its probability fall by 3.1 percentage points to 64%. This shift, occurring on a substantial volume of $2,110,000, suggests that market participants are paring back expectations for immediate monetary easing. Additionally, the market for "Will US Q3 2026 GDP growth exceed 2.5%?" climbed to 41%, up 1.8 percentage points, indicating a slight uptick in growth optimism two years out.

## Cryptocurrency

Crypto markets witnessed upward momentum for Bitcoin, with the "Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 before 2028?" market increasing by 2.4 percentage points to 38%. This move attracted the highest trading volume across all tracked markets, totaling $4,820,000, underscoring strong trader interest. Conversely, the long-shot "Will Ethereum flip Bitcoin by market cap in 2026?" market saw a decrease of 1.2 percentage points, settling at a mere 8% probability.

## Artificial Intelligence

AI-related predictions showed notable increases. The market for "Will GPT-6 be released in 2026?" rose by 5.8 percentage points to 27%, making it the largest positive percentage point mover of the day. Similarly, the market "Will an AI model score 90%+ on the ARC-AGI benchmark in 2026?" also saw an increase, climbing 4.5 percentage points to reach 33%. These upward adjustments reflect growing market confidence in the rapid advancement of large language models and general AI capabilities.

## Politics & Sports

In political markets, the forecast for a Democratic victory in the 2028 US presidential election edged up by 0.9 percentage points to 47%, drawing the highest trading volume of the day at $9,800,000. Sports predictions saw a minor dip, with the "Will the Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals?" market declining by 0.6 percentage points to 12%.

**What to watch:** Continued Fed rhetoric and upcoming economic data will likely drive further volatility in interest rate markets.