Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip to 64% as Bitcoin Targets $200K, AI Release Bets Climb
Prediction markets saw a notable shift over the past 24 hours, with the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the next FOMC meeting decreasing, while bullish sentiment for Bitcoin's future price continued to gather momentum. Bets on m
Prediction markets saw a notable shift over the past 24 hours, with the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the next FOMC meeting decreasing, while bullish sentiment for Bitcoin's future price continued to gather momentum. Bets on major AI model releases and achievements also surged.
## Macro & Federal Reserve The probability of a Fed rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting dipped by 3.1 percentage points to 64%. This market saw the highest trading volume outside of political events, reaching $2,110,000, indicating significant interest and potentially evolving expectations around monetary policy. Concurrently, optimism for US economic growth in Q3 2026 saw a modest increase, with the likelihood of GDP growth exceeding 2.5% rising 1.8 percentage points to 41%, on a volume of $780,000.
## Cryptocurrency Bitcoin’s ascent toward a $200,000 valuation before 2028 gained further traction, with its probability increasing by 2.4 percentage points to 38%. This market was the most active within crypto, registering a robust $4,820,000 in trading volume. Conversely, the long-shot bet on Ethereum flipping Bitcoin by market capitalization in 2026 slightly receded, falling 1.2 percentage points to a slim 8% likelihood, with $320,000 in volume.
## Artificial Intelligence The AI sector experienced a surge in speculative interest. The probability of GPT-6 being released in 2026 jumped by a significant 5.8 percentage points to 27%, attracting a substantial volume of $1,640,000. Similarly, the market for an AI model achieving 90%+ on the ARC-AGI benchmark in 2026 rose by 4.5 percentage points to 33%, albeit on a lower volume of $210,000.
## Politics & Sports Political markets remained relatively stable, with the Democrats' chances of winning the 2028 US presidential election holding at 47%, following a marginal 0.9 percentage point increase. This market, with a colossal $9,800,000 in volume, continues to be a focal point for large-scale predictions. In sports, the Lakers' odds of winning the 2027 NBA Finals saw a minor decrease of 0.6 percentage points, settling at 12% probability with a volume of $540,000.
**What to watch:** Continued Fed commentary and inflation data will likely drive further volatility in rate-cut predictions, while crypto markets monitor BTC price action for further upside.