Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip to 64%; Bitcoin Approaches $200K as AI Market Heats Up
Prediction markets saw significant shifts in the last 24 hours, with traders paring back expectations for an immediate Fed rate cut while enthusiasm for Bitcoin nearing $200,000 continues to build. The market for AI milestones also showed r
Prediction markets saw significant shifts in the last 24 hours, with traders paring back expectations for an immediate Fed rate cut while enthusiasm for Bitcoin nearing $200,000 continues to build. The market for AI milestones also showed renewed vigor, particularly for the release of GPT-6.
## Macro & Monetary Policy
The probability of a Fed rate cut at the next FOMC meeting declined to 64%, down 3.1 percentage points over the last 24 hours. This market saw substantial trading volume, totaling $2,110,000, signaling a recalibration of investor sentiment regarding monetary policy. Concurrently, optimism for US economic growth in 2026 improved slightly, with the market predicting a 41% chance that Q3 2026 GDP growth will exceed 2.5%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points.
## Cryptocurrency Trends
Bitcoin's ascent continues to be a focal point on prediction platforms. The market forecasting Bitcoin to reach $200,000 before 2028 surged to 38%, marking a 2.4 percentage point rise with a hefty $4,820,000 in volume. Conversely, the long-shot bet on Ethereum flipping Bitcoin by market cap in 2026 saw its probability dip to 8%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points.
## AI Race Milestones
Interest in artificial intelligence advancements picked up considerable momentum. The market for GPT-6 being released in 2026 witnessed a notable jump, climbing 5.8 percentage points to 27%. This market generated the highest AI-related volume at $1,640,000. Additionally, the likelihood of an AI model scoring 90%+ on the ARC-AGI benchmark in 2026 rose to 33%, up 4.5 percentage points, highlighting growing confidence in rapid AI development.
## Political & Sports Outlooks
In politics, the market for Democrats winning the 2028 US presidential election edged up to 47%, a modest gain of 0.9 percentage points, underscoring ongoing political uncertainty. This market commanded the highest volume across all categories, reaching $9,800,000. Meanwhile, sports bettors became slightly less optimistic about the Lakers' chances in the 2027 NBA Finals, with their probability of winning falling to 12%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points.
**What to watch:** Continued Fed commentary and incoming inflation data will likely drive further adjustments in rate cut probabilities.