Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip to 64%; Bitcoin Targets $200K as AI Market Heats Up
Prediction markets saw a mixed session, with the probability of a Fed rate cut at the next FOMC meeting continuing its decline, now standing at 64% after a 3.1 percentage point drop. Concurrently, bullish sentiment around Bitcoin has pushed
Prediction markets saw a mixed session, with the probability of a Fed rate cut at the next FOMC meeting continuing its decline, now standing at 64% after a 3.1 percentage point drop. Concurrently, bullish sentiment around Bitcoin has pushed its odds of reaching $200,000 before 2028 to 38%, up 2.4 percentage points, as AI-related markets also experienced notable shifts.
## Macro & Federal Reserve
The most significant movement in the macro sphere was the further cooling of expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut. The market predicting a cut at the next FOMC meeting now sits at 64%, down 3.1 percentage points over the last 24 hours on a substantial volume of $2,110,000. This suggests traders are increasingly factoring in a more hawkish stance or delayed easing from the central bank. Meanwhile, optimism for future economic growth saw the market on whether US Q3 2026 GDP growth will exceed 2.5% tick up to 41%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points.
## Crypto Markets
Bitcoin's long-term prospects saw a notable uptick, with the market predicting it will reach $200,000 before 2028 climbing to 38%, a 2.4 percentage point rise on the day's highest volume at $4,820,000. This indicates sustained confidence in the leading cryptocurrency's upward trajectory. Conversely, the market for Ethereum flipping Bitcoin by market cap in 2026 continued its bearish trend, dipping another 1.2 percentage points to a low 8% probability, reflecting diminishing confidence in ETH's relative performance against BTC in the near future.
## Artificial Intelligence Predictions
The AI sector demonstrated strong market interest, with significant moves in key development milestones. The probability of GPT-6 being released in 2026 surged by 5.8 percentage points to 27%, fueled by a substantial trading volume of $1,640,000. This suggests growing conviction that the next iteration of OpenAI's flagship model could arrive sooner than previously anticipated. Similarly, the market for an AI model scoring 90%+ on the ARC-AGI benchmark in 2026 rose to 33%, up 4.5 percentage points, highlighting increasing belief in rapid advancements in AI capabilities.
## Political & Sports Outlook
In politics, the market for the Democrats winning the 2028 US presidential election saw a slight uptick to 47%, gaining 0.9 percentage points, indicating a minor shift in favor of the party. On the sports front, the Lakers' chances of winning the 2027 NBA Finals dimmed slightly, dropping 0.6 percentage points to 12%.
**What to watch:** Continued Fed rhetoric and upcoming inflation data for further shifts in interest rate expectations while keeping an eye on AI major announcements.