Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip to 64%; Bitcoin Targets $200K on Polymarket

Prediction markets witnessed a significant shift in monetary policy expectations today as the probability of a Fed rate cut at the next FOMC meeting decreased. Meanwhile, investor optimism for Bitcoin continues to climb, with a notable uptick in markets predicting a substantial price surge.

## Macro & Monetary Policy Shifts

The most active market of the day centered on the Federal Reserve. The probability of the Fed cutting rates at its next FOMC meeting fell by 3.1 percentage points over the last 24 hours, now settling at 64%. This market saw substantial trading volume, exceeding $2.1 million, reflecting keen interest and evolving sentiment following recent economic indicators and Fed commentary. Concurrently, optimism for future economic growth edged up, with the market predicting US Q3 2026 GDP growth to exceed 2.5% rising by 1.8 percentage points to 41%.

## Crypto Markets Rally

Bitcoin's potential for a parabolic rise captured significant attention, with the market predicting Bitcoin to reach $200,000 before 2028 climbing by 2.4 percentage points to 38%. This market was the highest volume market, trading over $4.8 million, indicating strong speculative interest. In contrast, the market for Ethereum flipping Bitcoin by market cap in 2026 saw a slight decline, dropping 1.2 percentage points to a low 8%, suggesting continued belief in Bitcoin's dominance.

## AI Race Accelerates

Predictions regarding artificial intelligence advancements showed increased confidence. The likelihood of GPT-6 being released in 2026 jumped by 5.8 percentage points to 27%, making it the largest percentage point gain among all tracked markets. Similarly, the market for an AI model scoring 90%+ on the ARC-AGI benchmark in 2026 rose by 4.5 percentage points to 33%. These moves underscore growing expectations for rapid progress in AI capabilities by mid-decade.

## Political & Sports Outlook

In the political sphere, the probability of the Democrats winning the 2028 US presidential election saw a minor increase of 0.9 percentage points, now standing at 47%. This market generated nearly $9.8 million in volume, demonstrating sustained interest in long-term political outcomes. Sports predictions were relatively quiet, with the market for the Lakers winning the 2027 NBA Finals slipping by 0.6 percentage points to 12%.

**What to watch:** The shifting Fed rate cut probabilities will remain a key indicator for broader market sentiment in the coming days.