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Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip to 64%; Bitcoin Targets $200K on Polymarket Surge

TomorrowAlpha AI Desk·

Prediction markets saw a mixed bag of movements over the past 24 hours, with a notable shift in Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and a renewed surge in confidence for Bitcoin's ambitious price targets. Trading volume remained robust ac

Prediction markets saw a mixed bag of movements over the past 24 hours, with a notable shift in Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and a renewed surge in confidence for Bitcoin's ambitious price targets. Trading volume remained robust across key categories, reflecting active investor re-evaluation of macroeconomic trends, technological advancements, and crypto market dynamics.

## Macro & Monetary Policy Sentiment on a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut cooled significantly. The market for "Will the Fed cut rates at the next FOMC meeting?" dropped by **3.1 percentage points** to **64%**, signaling reduced conviction as economic data continues to be absorbed. This market alone saw a substantial **$2,110,000** in volume, indicating a strong reaction to recent economic indicators or hawkish Fed commentary. Looking further out, expectations for US economic growth saw a minor uptick, with "Will US Q3 2026 GDP growth exceed 2.5%?" rising by **1.8 percentage points** to **41%**, albeit on lower volume of **$780,000**.

## Crypto Markets Cryptocurrency predictions saw significant action, particularly around Bitcoin's long-term potential. The market for "Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 before 2028?" surged by **2.4 percentage points** to **38%**, demonstrating growing optimism among traders, and drawing the highest volume of the day at **$4,820,000**. Conversely, the probability of Ethereum eclipsing Bitcoin in market capitalization by 2026, tracked by "Will Ethereum flip Bitcoin by market cap in 2026?", continued its decline, falling by **1.2 percentage points** to a slim **8%**, with **$320,000** in volume.

## AI & Technology Race The race for advanced AI capabilities remains a hot topic, with both markets tracking significant increases. The probability for "Will GPT-6 be released in 2026?" jumped by **5.8 percentage points** to **27%**, marking the largest percentage point gain across all tracked markets and attracting **$1,640,000** in volume. Similarly, the market forecasting "Will an AI model score 90%+ on the ARC-AGI benchmark in 2026?" saw a **4.5 percentage point** increase, now standing at **33%** with **$210,000** traded. These movements suggest increased belief in the rapid pace of AI development.

## Politics & Sports Political outlooks for the 2028 US Presidential Election saw marginal shifts, with the market asking "Will the Democrats win the 2028 US presidential election?" showing a slight increase of **0.9 percentage points** to **47%**. This market continues to attract substantial attention, recording the day's highest volume at **$9,800,000**. In sports, the odds of the Lakers winning the 2027 NBA Finals dipped slightly by **0.6 percentage points** to **12%**, with **$540,000** in volume.

**What to watch:** Continued Fed rhetoric and upcoming inflation data will likely dictate the next moves in rate cut probabilities.