GPT-6 Release Odds Jump to 27% as Fed Rate Cut Expectations Cool to 64%
Prediction markets saw significant movement over the past 24 hours, with expectations for a 2026 GPT-6 release surging, while the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the next FOMC meeting continued its downward trend. Trading volume
Prediction markets saw significant movement over the past 24 hours, with expectations for a 2026 GPT-6 release surging, while the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the next FOMC meeting continued its downward trend. Trading volumes remained robust, particularly in political and crypto markets, reflecting strong investor interest in forward-looking probabilities.
## Technology & AI Race
The AI sector dominated positive sentiment shifts. The probability of **GPT-6 being released in 2026?** climbed substantially by 5.8 percentage points (pp) to 27%, trading over $1.64 million. This surge suggests growing optimism or new information circulating about OpenAI's development timelines. Similarly, the prospect of **an AI model scoring 90%+ on the ARC-AGI benchmark in 2026?** increased by 4.5 pp, reaching 33% on a volume of $210,000, underscoring the perceived rapid advancements in AI capabilities.
## Macro & Federal Reserve Policy
Expectations for monetary policy easing continued to recede. The likelihood of **the Fed cutting rates at the next FOMC meeting?** dropped by 3.1 pp to 64%, following recent economic data that may suggest less urgency for immediate cuts. This market saw a high volume of $2.11 million. Concurrently, optimism for economic growth showed a slight uptick, with the probability of **US Q3 2026 GDP growth exceeding 2.5%?** rising by 1.8 pp to 41%, trading $780,000.
## Crypto Futures
Crypto markets presented a mixed picture. The most actively traded crypto market was **Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 before 2028?**, which saw its probability increase by 2.4 pp to 38% on a significant volume of $4.82 million, indicating renewed bullish sentiment for a major BTC price target. In contrast, the market for **Will Ethereum flip Bitcoin by market cap in 2026?** declined by 1.2 pp to a low 8% chance, with $320,000 in volume, suggesting fading belief in ETH's ability to overtake BTC in the near-term.
## Political Outlook
In politics, the market for **Will the Democrats win the 2028 US presidential election?** saw minimal movement, ticking up by 0.9 pp to 47%. This market generated the highest trading volume across all listed markets at $9.80 million, reflecting intense interest in future electoral outcomes.
**What to watch:** Further shifts in Fed rate cut probabilities and continued momentum in AI development timelines.