Markets Eye AI Race, BTC $200K as Fed Rate Cut Odds Slip to 64%
Prediction markets saw significant movement over the past 24 hours, with traders adjusting expectations across macro, crypto, and technology sectors. The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting saw a notable d
Prediction markets saw significant movement over the past 24 hours, with traders adjusting expectations across macro, crypto, and technology sectors. The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting saw a notable decrease, while optimism for Bitcoin reaching $200,000 and key AI milestones gained traction.
## Macro & Monetary Policy
The most actively traded macro market concerned the Federal Reserve. Odds for the Fed to cut rates at the next FOMC meeting fell to 64%, marking a 3.1 percentage point (pp) decline over the last 24 hours. This market saw substantial volume, totaling $2,110,000, indicating active re-evaluation of central bank policy expectations. Separately, the probability of US Q3 2026 GDP growth exceeding 2.5% edged up to 41%, a modest increase of 1.8 pp with $780,000 in volume.
## Cryptocurrency Trends
In the crypto sphere, the prospect of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 before 2028 saw a positive shift, climbing to 38%. This represented a 2.4 pp increase and was the highest volume crypto market at $4,820,000. Conversely, the market predicting Ethereum to flip Bitcoin by market cap in 2026 saw its probability decline to a low 8%, down 1.2 pp, on $320,000 volume.
## AI Race Intensifies
Optimism regarding future AI advancements picked up momentum. The probability of GPT-6 being released in 2026 surged to 27%, representing the largest positive 24-hour change across all observed markets at 5.8 pp. This market garnered $1,640,000 in volume. Complementing this, the likelihood of an AI model scoring 90%+ on the ARC-AGI benchmark in 2026 also increased to 33%, up 4.5 pp with $210,000 traded.
## Political & Sports Outlooks
Political markets remained relatively stable, with the Democrats' chances of winning the 2028 US presidential election holding at 47%, a marginal 0.9 pp increase, albeit on the highest overall volume of $9,800,000. In sports, the Lakers' odds of winning the 2027 NBA Finals slightly declined to 12%, down 0.6 pp on $540,000 volume.
**What to watch:** Continued shifts in Fed rate cut probabilities and the evolving AI development timeline.