Polymarket Traders Cut Fed Rate Cut Odds, Boost Bitcoin $200K Bet Amid AI Enthusiasm
Prediction markets on Polymarket saw notable shifts over the past 24 hours, with traders increasingly betting against an immediate Federal Reserve rate cut while raising the probability of Bitcoin hitting $200,000. Enthusiasm for AI advance
Prediction markets on Polymarket saw notable shifts over the past 24 hours, with traders increasingly betting against an immediate Federal Reserve rate cut while raising the probability of Bitcoin hitting $200,000. Enthusiasm for AI advancements also surged, alongside high-volume activity in the 2028 US presidential election market.
## Macro & Monetary Policy
Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut at the next FOMC meeting declined, with the probability now standing at 64%, down 3.1 percentage points over the last 24 hours. This market saw substantial trading volume of $2,110,000, indicating active re-evaluation of the Fed's dovish potential. Concurrently, the likelihood of US Q3 2026 GDP growth exceeding 2.5% edged up slightly to 41%, a 1.8 percentage point increase, with $780,000 in volume.
## Crypto Markets
Bullish sentiment for Bitcoin showed a significant uptick, with the probability of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 before 2028 rising to 38%, a 2.4 percentage point increase. This was the highest volume market among crypto predictions, totaling $4,820,000. In contrast, the market for Ethereum flipping Bitcoin by market cap in 2026 saw a decrease, now at 8% likelihood (down 1.2 percentage points) on $320,000 volume.
## AI & Technology
Optimism regarding future AI breakthroughs surged. The probability of GPT-6 being released in 2026 jumped by 5.8 percentage points to 27%, attracting the largest volume in the AI sector at $1,640,000. Similarly, the market predicting an AI model scoring 90%+ on the ARC-AGI benchmark in 2026 increased by 4.5 percentage points to 33%, with $210,000 traded.
## Politics & Sports
In political betting, the market for Democrats winning the 2028 US presidential election saw minimal change, increasing slightly by 0.9 percentage points to 47%. This market registered the highest overall trading volume for the day at $9,800,000, suggesting intense interest and closely divided opinion. Meanwhile, sports predictions saw a minor dip, with the Lakers' odds of winning the 2027 NBA Finals falling by 0.6 percentage points to 12% on $540,000 volume.
**What to watch:** Continued shifts in Fed rate cut probabilities and sustained interest in Bitcoin's long-term trajectory.