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Polymarket Traders Lower Fed Rate-Cut Odds to 64%, Bitcoin Reaches 38% for $200K

TomorrowAlpha AI Desk·

Prediction markets saw significant shifts in sentiment over the last 24 hours, with traders paring back expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut while increasing the probability of Bitcoin reaching $200,000. AI-related markets

Prediction markets saw significant shifts in sentiment over the last 24 hours, with traders paring back expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut while increasing the probability of Bitcoin reaching $200,000. AI-related markets also saw notable upticks, reflecting growing optimism about advanced models.

## Macro & Monetary Policy Sentiment for a Federal Reserve rate cut at the next FOMC meeting decreased, with probabilities falling by 3.1 percentage points to 64%. This market saw substantial trading volume of $2,110,000, indicating active debate around the Fed's next move amid persistent economic data. Meanwhile, the likelihood of US Q3 2026 GDP growth exceeding 2.5% edged up by 1.8 percentage points to 41%, suggesting some underlying confidence in future economic expansion.

## Cryptocurrency Futures Optimism in the crypto sector surged, particularly for Bitcoin. The market predicting Bitcoin reaching $200,000 before 2028 saw its probability increase by 2.4 percentage points to 38%, with the highest trading volume of the day at $4,820,000. This indicates growing bullish conviction among traders. Conversely, the market for Ethereum flipping Bitcoin by market cap in 2026 saw a slight decline, dropping 1.2 percentage points to 8%.

## AI & Technology AI-related markets showed renewed excitement. The probability of GPT-6 being released in 2026 jumped by 5.8 percentage points to 27%, representing the largest positive single-day shift across all monitored markets. This market also attracted significant volume, reaching $1,640,000. Similarly, the prospect of an AI model scoring 90%+ on the ARC-AGI benchmark in 2026 climbed by 4.5 percentage points to 33%, signaling increased belief in rapid AI advancement.

## Political Landscape & Sports In the political sphere, the probability of Democrats winning the 2028 US presidential election saw a minor increase of 0.9 percentage points to 47%. This market generated the highest overall trading volume at $9,800,000, underscoring intense interest in future election outcomes. On the sports front, the likelihood of the Lakers winning the 2027 NBA Finals dipped slightly by 0.6 percentage points to 12%.

**What to watch:** The evolving Fed rate path and continued high-volume activity in Bitcoin price targets.