Top Moves on Polymarket & Kalshi — 2026-08-11

{ "title": "Polymarket Dips Fed Rate Cut Odds to 64%; AI & Bitcoin Futures See Rises", "body": "Prediction markets have shown notable shifts in the last 24 hours, with traders recalibrating expectations for monetary policy, technological advancements, and cryptocurrency valuations. The biggest movement was seen in the odds for a Federal Reserve rate cut, which declined, while interest in future AI milestones and Bitcoin's long-term potential gathered momentum.\n\n## Macroeconomics & Monetary Policy\n\nThe probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates at its next FOMC meeting saw the most significant decline, dropping 3.1 percentage points to 64%. This move, backed by a substantial $2,110,000 in trading volume, suggests market participants are pricing in a slightly more hawkish stance or sustained economic strength. Separately, confidence in the US economy's future performance edged up, with the probability of Q3 2026 GDP growth exceeding 2.5% rising 1.8 percentage points to 41%, on $780,000 in volume.\n\n## Technology & AI Race\n\nOptimism regarding the pace of AI development has notably increased. The market forecasting a GPT-6 release in 2026 jumped 5.8 percentage points to 27%, fueled by $1,640,000 in volume, making it the largest positive change observed. Similarly, the likelihood of an AI model scoring 90%+ on the ARC-AGI benchmark in 2026 rose 4.5 percentage points to 33%, with $210,000 traded. These movements indicate growing belief in rapid progress within the artificial intelligence sector.\n\n## Cryptocurrency Futures\n\nBitcoin's long-term prospects gained ground among traders, as the probability of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 before 2028 increased 2.4 percentage points to 38%. This market saw the highest trading volume at $4,820,000, underscoring strong interest in crypto's future trajectory. Conversely, the market predicting Ethereum to flip Bitcoin by market cap in 2026 saw a minor decrease of 1.2 percentage points, settling at 8%, with $320,000 in volume.\n\n## Politics & Sports\n\nPolitical predictions for the 2028 US presidential election remained relatively stable, with the Democrats' odds of winning ticking up 0.9 percentage points to 47%. This market generated the highest overall trading volume at $9,800,000. In sports, the probability of the Lakers winning the 2027 NBA Finals slightly decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 12%, on $540,000 in volume.\n\n**What to watch:** Further Fed commentary for rate cut sentiment and new AI development announcements." announcements." " }