TomorrowAlpha Market Wrap: Rate Cut Odds Dip, AI Futures Surge

## TomorrowAlpha Market Wrap: Rate Cut Odds Dip, AI Futures Surge

Prediction markets saw notable activity in the last 24 hours, with declining probabilities for an imminent Fed rate cut and increased speculation in artificial intelligence development. The aggregate volume traded across key markets exceeded $20 million, indicating significant conviction among participants.

## Macro Economy

Expectations for a near-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve showed a marked decline. The market assessing "Will the Fed cut rates at the next FOMC meeting?" fell by 3.1 percentage points over 24 hours, settling at 64%. This market alone saw volume of $2,110,000. In broader economic indicators, the probability that "Will US Q3 2026 GDP growth exceed 2.5%?" edged up by 1.8 percentage points to 41%, trading with $780,000 in volume.

## Technology & AI

Optimism for advanced AI development continued to build. The market tracking "Will GPT-6 be released in 2026?" saw a substantial 5.8 percentage point increase, reaching 27%. This market generated significant interest, with a trading volume of $1,640,000. Similarly, the likelihood of an AI model achieving high-level general intelligence, as measured by "Will an AI model score 90%+ on the ARC-AGI benchmark in 2026?", rose by 4.5 percentage points to 33%, with $210,000 traded.

## Crypto

Cryptocurrency-related markets experienced mixed movements. The prospect of Bitcoin reaching a new high-water mark before 2028 gained traction, with the market "Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 before 2028?" increasing by 2.4 percentage points to 38%. This was the highest volume market in the past 24 hours, totaling $4,820,000. Conversely, the probability of "Will Ethereum flip Bitcoin by market cap in 2026?" further diminished, dropping 1.2 percentage points to 8%, on volume of $320,000.

## Politics & Sports

Political futures remained relatively stable, with the market "Will the Democrats win the 2028 US presidential election?" seeing a minor increase of 0.9 percentage points to 47%. This market was the highest volume political market, trading $9,800,000. In sports, the outlook for the Los Angeles Lakers in the 2027 NBA Finals dimmed marginally. The market "Will the Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals?" decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 12%, with $540,000 in volume.

**What to watch:** Continued Fed commentary and incoming inflation data are likely to influence rate cut probabilities.