Best prediction markets in 2026: a global guide
Updated 12 Oct 2026
There is no single 'best' prediction market — the right answer depends on where you live, what you want to trade, and how much regulatory comfort you need. Here's the global landscape.
For US residents: Kalshi and Polymarket US are both CFTC-regulated. Polymarket US has been available since July 2025 in all US states except Nevada; polymarket.com (the international site) still blocks the US.
For UK residents: Smarkets and Betfair Exchange are both UK Gambling Commission-licensed peer-to-peer betting exchanges that function as de-facto prediction markets.
For EU residents: Most major exchanges geo-block the EU under MiCA and national licensing regimes. Manifold (play money) is the most reliable cross-border option.
For everywhere else: Polymarket if accessible, Manifold if not. Always check our country-by-country guide first.
Read next: [Kalshi vs Polymarket](/compare/polymarket-vs-kalshi) · [Polymarket alternatives](/compare/polymarket-alternatives)
Frequently asked questions
What is the most accurate prediction market?
On liquid political markets Polymarket and Kalshi are both well calibrated; Kalshi is the largest venue by volume and strongest on US economic events and sport.