Best prediction markets in 2026: a global guide
There is no single 'best' prediction market — the right answer depends on where you live, what you want to trade, and how much regulatory comfort you need. Here's the global landscape.
For US residents: Kalshi is the only fully legal option. It's CFTC-regulated and offers deep liquidity on economic and political events.
For UK residents: Smarkets and Betfair Exchange are both UK Gambling Commission-licensed peer-to-peer betting exchanges that function as de-facto prediction markets.
For EU residents: Most major exchanges geo-block the EU under MiCA and national licensing regimes. Manifold (play money) is the most reliable cross-border option.
For everywhere else: Polymarket if accessible, Manifold if not. Always check our country-by-country guide first.
Frequently asked questions
What is the most accurate prediction market?
On political event markets with high liquidity, Polymarket has historically had the lowest mispricing errors. For US economic events, Kalshi is competitive.