Best prediction markets in Europe (2026)
Updated 12 Oct 2026
The EU has no federal prediction-market regulator — licensing is national. Polymarket is blocked in most EU member states and Kalshi restricts eight of them. The MiCA regulation, in force from 2024, adds federal crypto-asset oversight that further complicates Polymarket access.
Manifold Markets is the most reliable pan-EU option — its play-money structure puts it outside both gambling and MiCA regimes.
For real-money markets, EU residents are largely limited to nationally licensed sportsbooks (Tipico in Germany, Betclic in France, etc.), which offer fixed-odds event betting rather than peer-to-peer exchanges.
Frequently asked questions
Will Polymarket come to the EU?
No EU authorisation exists as of October 2026: ESMA (Sept 2026) said major platforms lack it, and nine national regulators (BE, FR, DE, IT, NL, PL, PT, ES, CH) declared unlicensed prediction markets illegal on 17 June 2026.