Are prediction markets legal in European Union?
Polymarket and Kalshi geo-block most EU member states. EU gambling law is national rather than federal: each member state operates its own licensing regime. MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation), effective 2024, adds federal oversight of crypto-denominated products. Manifold is unrestricted.
- Regulator
- National regulators per member state; ESMA for crypto-asset oversight (MiCA)
- Recommended platforms
- Manifold, National licensed operators
Detailed overview
The European Union does not have a federal gambling regulator — each member state licenses operators separately. However, MiCA (in force from 2024) creates EU-wide rules for crypto-asset services, which directly affects USDC-denominated prediction markets like Polymarket.
Frequently asked questions
Why is Polymarket blocked in the EU?
Polymarket has not pursued licensing in any EU member state. Under MiCA, USDC-denominated speculative markets may also require crypto-asset service provider authorization.
Are there pan-EU prediction markets?
No EU-wide prediction-market exchange currently exists. Manifold (play-money) is the closest unrestricted option.
This page is editorial information, not legal advice. Regulations change frequently. Consult a qualified lawyer in your jurisdiction before trading.