Prediction market licensing: which licence do you need? (2026)
By TomorrowAlpha Editorial Desk · Published · Updated
There is no single prediction-market licence. In the US operators need CFTC designation as a contract market (Kalshi, Polymarket US). In the UK the Gambling Commission says a betting-intermediary licence is likely required. In the EU each country applies its own gambling or financial rules; ESMA says major platforms lack EU authorisation. Gibraltar has licensed ADI Predictstreet. Malta's MGA has not published a dedicated prediction-market licence.
At a glance
- US
- CFTC Designated Contract Market (+ DCO for clearing)
- UK
- UKGC betting intermediary licence (or FCA for financial products)
- EU
- National gambling licences; MiFID II / MiCA possible; no pan-EU route
- Gibraltar
- ADI Predictstreet licensed (FIFA World Cup 2026 partner)
- Malta (MGA)
- No dedicated prediction-market category published as of Oct 2026
Licensing routes by jurisdiction
| Jurisdiction | Regulator | Route | Licensed examples |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | CFTC | Designated Contract Market (DCM) | Kalshi, Polymarket US |
| United Kingdom | UKGC / FCA | Betting intermediary licence; FCA for spread bets | Smarkets, Betfair Exchange, Matchbook |
| EU member states | National gambling regulators; ESMA/NCAs | Local gambling licence or MiFID II/MiCA authorisation | None for Polymarket or Kalshi |
| Gibraltar | Gibraltar Gambling Commissioner | Remote gambling licence | ADI Predictstreet |
| Malta | MGA | B2C gaming licence (scope for event contracts untested) | — |
Can an MGA licence cover prediction markets?
Not clearly. As of October 2026 the Malta Gaming Authority has not issued public guidance or a dedicated licence category for prediction markets. An MGA B2C licence covers betting products, but a Malta licence does not override national bans in other EU states — the nine regulators that signed the June 2026 joint statement require a local licence. Operators exploring Malta should expect classification questions (gambling vs financial instrument under MiFID II).
Why there is no EU prediction-market licence
EU gambling law is not harmonised, so each member state licenses betting nationally. Event contracts on financial outcomes may instead be MiFID II instruments — and ESMA indicated in July 2026 that binary contracts on financial or economic outcomes can fall under national retail binary-option bans. Read our EU guide.
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Frequently asked questions
Do prediction markets need a gaming licence?
In the UK and most of Europe, yes — regulators treat them as gambling. In the US they need CFTC designation as a contract market instead.
Is there an MGA licence for prediction markets?
No dedicated MGA category has been published as of October 2026, and an MGA licence would not override other EU countries' national licensing requirements.
Sources
Related guides
Editorial information, not legal or financial advice. Regulations change frequently — last verified 12 Oct 2026.