Discover what prediction markets reveal about politics, AI, crypto and the world ahead.
Live odds, comparisons and Bloomberg-grade analysis from Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold and every regulated event-derivatives venue on Earth.
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Updated continuouslyLive prediction markets from Polymarket, Kalshi & Manifold
Prediction markets news & analysis
All analysis →Prediction Markets: Fed Cut Chances Ease, AI Futures Mixed
Prediction Markets: Fed Cut Chances Ease, AI Futures Mixed Prediction markets saw notable activity over the past 24 hours, with the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut at its next meeting decreasing, while futures on AI development pr
Polymarket vs Kalshi: Where Should Serious Traders Allocate?
Polymarket and Kalshi are the two largest prediction markets in the world — and they could not be more different. A side-by-side on regulation, liquidity, fees, and which platform actually wins for which trader.
The Quiet Repricing of Fed Cut Odds
When the Fed signals a cut, the largest re-rating happens not in the bond market but on Kalshi. Here is how CFTC-regulated rate contracts absorb new information faster than dealer screens — and why macro desks now watch them at the open.
Why Crypto Traders Are Front-Running the BTC $200K Market
Polymarket's $200,000 bitcoin contracts are pricing a 38% probability for end-2028. The spot market is not. Here is what the basis is telling us about leverage, time-horizon discounting, and where event-contract markets lead spot.
A Beginner's Guide to Prediction Markets
New to prediction markets? Start here. A working guide to how the prices map to probabilities, which platforms exist, how to actually place a trade — and the four mistakes every first-timer makes.
AI Benchmarks Are Becoming a Tradeable Asset Class
Polymarket's contracts on GPT-5 launch dates and Claude benchmark scores now clear six figures of volume each. Treating AI benchmarks as a tradable asset class is no longer absurd — and the buy-side is starting to position accordingly.
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What is a prediction market?
How they work, who uses them, why the prices move.
Polymarket vs Kalshi
Two leading platforms, two very different regulators.
Are prediction markets legal in the US?
Kalshi is CFTC-regulated; Polymarket geo-blocks US IPs.
Prediction markets in the UK
What Smarkets and Betfair Exchange offer instead.
EU access and MiCA
Why Polymarket geo-blocks most of Europe — and what comes next.
Country-by-country guide
Availability and regulation in 10+ jurisdictions.