Manifold Markets: how the play-money prediction market works (2026)

How Manifold Markets works

You sign up free and receive starting Mana. Each market is a question — binary (yes/no), multiple choice or numeric. Buying YES pushes the probability up; buying NO pushes it down. When the market resolves, winning shares pay out in Mana.

Unlike Kalshi or Polymarket, any user can create a market and is usually responsible for resolving it, subject to community moderation. That's why Manifold has tens of thousands of markets on niche topics — AI benchmarks, personal goals, science, local politics.

Manifold Markets fee structure

Manifold charges small fees in Mana, not money: creating a market costs Mana, and trades carry a fee that goes to the market creator and liquidity. Because Mana can't be cashed out, fees only affect your score and leaderboard ranking. Check Manifold's current fee page for exact rates, which change periodically.

Manifold leaderboards

Leaderboards rank traders by profit, by calibration and by market creation, plus league seasons. They are the main incentive on a play-money platform and a useful signal of which forecasters to follow.

Is Manifold accurate?

On popular questions Manifold's probabilities are often close to real-money markets. On thinly traded user-created markets, a single trader can move the price a lot — check the number of traders before relying on a forecast.

Is Manifold legal where I live?

Because players can't win money, Manifold generally falls outside gambling law. That makes it the main option in countries where Polymarket and Kalshi are blocked — the UK, Germany, Switzerland, India and most of the EU.